Tuesday, April 29, 2008

City of LA: New Green Building Ordinance

On April 22, 2008, the City of Los Angeles passed Ordinance No. 179820 establishing a city-wide Green Building Program. As of November 1, 2008 all commercial/industrial projects over 50,000 square feet and high-rise residential/mixed-use projects over 50 dwelling units will need to meet minimum LEED sustainability standards or else they will not be issued a building permit. As of May 1, 2009, the standards will apply to low-rise residential projects. In addition, projects which are deemed at least LEED Silver will be expedited through the City’s permitting process.


You can read more about LA's Green Ordinance Bill Here.


Green Buildings have lower operating costs but higher initial costs

Operational Savings:
8-9% decrease in operating costs (Lighting, HVAC)
7-8% increase in building value
6-7% increase in ROI
3-4% increase in occupancy
2-3% increase in rent

Initial Costs:
Additional Construction Costs for LEED-Certified Buildings
Platinum (52-69 LEED Points): 6-7% increased cost
Gold (39-51 LEED Points): 2-3% increased cost
Silver (33-38 LEED Points): 1-2% increased cost
Certified (26-32 LEED Points): 0-1% increased cost

Green Strategies: The LEED system is based on points in a number of categories, some points are easier to obtain than others. It is possible to obtain LEED Certification without major cost and with minor changes in the planning stages of a project.


Easy Points Include:
· Minimizing available parking
· Allocating “preferred” parking for low emission vehicles and van-pools
· Facilitating bike racks
· Water efficient landscaping
· Storage & Collection of Recyclables
· Renewable Building Materials such as wheat-board, bamboo, linoleum etc.
It doesn't take much to "go green" but a little up-front planning before the building is constructed is needed in order to meet these new criteria.

Los Angeles is taking a bold step forward and it is expected that many cities will follow in this footstep. If you are in the development community, you should take some time to familiarize yourself with the whole LEED Certification process; it is not going away any time soon.

Monday, April 28, 2008

Inland Empire Office Completions



Taking a peek at office completions for the Inland Empire and I am reminded by the Rowing Song from Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory (the original 1971 movie with Gene Wilder)

The Rowing Song
Round the world and home again
That's the sailor's way
Faster faster, faster faster
There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing
Is it raining,
is it snowing
Is a hurricane a–blowing
Not a speck of light is showing
So the danger must be growing
Are the fires of Hell a–glowing
Is the grisly reaper mowing
Yes, the danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing
And they're certainly not showing
Any signs that they are slowing

My sentiments echo that of Veruca Salt: "Daddy, I do not want a boat like this".

As is often the case in these matters, the markets punishment of "excessive exuberance" in office construction will be swift, harsh and without prejudice.






Friday, April 25, 2008

Falling Dollar = More Exports


This chart shows the value of the dollar in relation to the Euro against outbound TEU's (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit containers) from the port of Los Angeles / Long Beach.

The Euro has been gaining strength while the dollar has been falling over the past year. When the Euro was first introduced in 2001, it was trading at roughly equal to that of the dollar, you could get a Euro for 94 cents. As of February 2008, it takes $1.48 to buy a Euro, a 57% increase in the price in just seven years.

Not all is doom and gloom; as the dollar declines American exports begin to look like bargains to consumers overseas. Likewise, the amount of American exports from Los Angeles / Long Beach has increased over this time period.

The joke used to be that the greatest American export was outbound empty containers. There was some truth to this argument.

It was easier and cheaper to create new containers in China and ship them to the United States rather than wait for empty containers to make their way back to the mainland.

This is no longer the case, the balance between outbound traffic and inbound traffic is starting to stabilize, due to decreases in inbound traffic and increases in outbound traffic.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

First Quarter 2008 San Gabriel Valley Indusrial Report

Vacancy Rates Begin To Ease, Average Asking Rental Rates Continue To Increase


Average asking rental rates have increased 4.2%, or $0.02, over the previous quarter to end at
$0.60 NNN PSF. Vacancy rates for the San Gabriel Valley have remained very low, ending at 1.6% for the quarter, slightly above 1.3% from the previous quarter. Average sale prices per SF for Q1 2008 have declined 5%, or $6 PSF, from the previous quarter to end at $117 PSF, down from $123 in Q4 2007. Demand for industrial space within the San Gabriel Valley remains exceptionally high and low vacancy rates continue to put upward pressure on rents



To View The Full Report: Click Here

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

State Unemployment Rate Increased




The State unemployment rate jumped 0.3% to 6.4%. This is the highest unemployment rate in the US after Michigan and Alaska.

Here are the unemployment rates for the following counties. The previous month’s adjusted unemployment rates is in parentheses:

Los Angeles County – 5.8% (5.3%) – Total nonfarm employment down 13,600 or 0.3% over a year ago

Orange County – 4.6% (4.3%) – Total nonfarm employment down 21,700 or 1.4% over a year ago

Inland Empire – 7.1% (6.7%) – Total nonfarm employment down 21,700 or 1.7% over a year ago

Ventura County – 5.6% (5.5%) – Total nonfarm employment down 5,600 or 1.9% over a year

Interpretation: Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Businesses usually cut back in other expenses before cutting staff; reduced staff hours, slowdown in hiring, cutting back on office supplies etc.

The large increase in unemployment in California is due to a few sectors; construction, finance and real estate. These industries were heavily concentrated here in California, home building in the Inland Empire and mortgage industries in Orange County.

The real estate boom was not without cost and we are paying it now. The market is self correcting, home prices will come down, financing will dry up and construction will slow until buyers and sellers stabilize. This rise is unemployment will be felt hardest where construction was heaviest, where land was cheapest.

Friday, April 18, 2008

First Quarter 2008 East Inland Empire Industrial Report


Industrial Vacancy Rate Holds Steady As Asking Rental Rates Decline

Sales and leasing activity in the first quarter totaled 5.0 million SF, more activity than occurred in the second half of 2007. This was due to several very large deals that stalled last quarter and were not able to close until the beginning of this year, such as Whirlpool’s 1.6 million SF lease in Perris. This surge in sales and leasing activity boosted net absorption to 2.8 million SF, up significantly from 583,600 SF the previous quarter although less than the 3.2 million SF from the first quarter of 2007. Recently completed space totaled 3.3 million SF this quarter. The amount of space under construction has slowly declined over the past year and now stands at 8.6 million SF, down from 10.7 million SF last quarter and down from 13.3 million SF one year ago. This gradual decrease in construction activity coincides with a softening in the overall economy and rising concerns of overbuilding. Long-term, however, tight market conditions and low levels of construction in the rest of the Los Angeles Basin will inevitably cause demand to shift to the East Inland Empire, which is the only expansion area left in the region.


To View Full Report: Click Here





First Quarter 2008 West Inland Empire Industrial Report

Activity Continues To Slow In The West Inland Empire Industrial Market

MARKET OVERVIEW
After five consecutive quarters of very strong activity, sales and leasing continued to slow in Q1 2008 in the West Inland Empire industrial market. Sales and leasing activity totaled 2.9 million SF in the first quarter, similar to the level of activity seen in the last quarter but down significantly from 4.8 million SF in the first quarter of last year. Net absorption remained negative (-621,200 SF), a rare occurrence in this market. Reasons for this slowdown appear to include a sluggish economy and adjustment to above-average activity in previous quarters.




To View Full Report: Click Here


Thursday, April 17, 2008

More of What I would be watching if I had TV: Human Footprint, driving edition

From the National Geographic Channel, a series that boils down what it means to be human and what a lifetime of consumption costs. The purpose of the show is to highlight how wasteful humans are as a species and how the Western lifestyle isn't sustainable. Economists call these negative effects "externalities", businessmen call these negative impacts "profits"; they don't necessarily have to pay for the pollution they cause.

Cars don't make themselves, they provide jobs and they alter the landscape.
Cities that were largely built out before the invention of the automobile are drastically different (New York and San Francisco for example) than cities that were developed around the automobile (Los Angeles and Las Vegas). Older cities are denser since it was harder to move away from the urban core. There is no end to the sprawl of the automobile cities, they endlessly replicate themselves in suburbs, dictated by developers who built houses and created cities "in the path of development".

I regard my car as a chain of necessity, a burden that I have to pay for. I am sure my grandparents view it in a different light, as their grandparents probably didn't have one and it is easier for them to recall a time when the car wasn't everything.

I read "How To Live Well Without A Car" and I recommend it if you view your car as I do mine, a depreciating asset and a money sink. I only wish I was able to implement more of these findings but as people who live here in Southern California know, there is no walking in La.

Human Footprint - Our Driving Imprint-->
Thanks to Henry Ford, we’ve become an auto nation. The car has transformed the landscape. It has enabled us to work in one place and live someplace else. Although our nation has only 5 percent of the world’s population, we have 30 percent of the world’s cars. We shape our lives around the car. We’ve built freeways and cities for it. Life without it is unimaginable.

But life with it comes at a cost.
Cars are complicated machines, requiring natural resources and high technology to manufacture. Human Footprint not only looks at the footprint of one person’s lifetime of driving, but also looks at the actual footprint of a typical American car.

A driving nation:
- The average American will own an average of 12 cars in a lifetime.
- We each drive an average of 11,000 miles a year — that’s 627, 000 miles in a lifetime — which is 25 times round the world.
- On that journey, we’ll use 31,350 gallons of gasoline — enough to fill three large fuel tankers.
- The 200 million cars that drive on America’s roads and highways will be replaced roughly every 17 years.
- Americans use a quarter of the world’s oil, and it takes half of that to fuel all of our cars — that amounts to 10.5 million barrels of oil every day.
- The United States also pumps half of the world’s carbon dioxide fumes into the air each year.
- The family car can contribute to nearly six tons of carbon emissions a year, and over a driving lifetime this adds up to 360 tons for each vehicle on the road.
- If all the vehicles in the United States were a nation, their combined carbon footprint would be the fifth largest of all the countries on earth.

Where do our cars come from?
Did you know the parts of your car may have travelled farther than the complete car will ever drive?

To determine the extent of an average car’s environmental footprint, Human Footprint dismantled an old and no longer working Ford Crown Victoria and placed each of the parts on the world map to see just how far your car has travelled to get to your local dealership. It is truly a world affair:
- The seatbelts and airbags come from Sweden.
- The zinc metals, chemicals and catalysts come from Belgium.
- The antilock breaking, fuel injection systems, door and seat components come from Germany.
- The tires are from South Korea.
- The stereo and wiring are from China and Japan.
- There are aluminium parts from Thailand.
- And that’s not taking into account all the raw materials like manganese iron ore and rubber – all before we’ve driven a single mile.

What we do counts, so how can we each make a difference?
- In the United States, if all motorists were to shift from their current vehicles with internal combustion engines to cars with hybrid engines like the Toyota Prius or the Honda Insight, gasoline use could be cut in half.
- If you can afford a hybrid, stopglobalwarming.org says you can save 16,000 pounds of CO2 and $3,750 a year. You don't even have to give up your SUV!

Human Footprint airs this Sunday beginning at 9p et/pt


Tuesday, April 15, 2008

First Quarter Tri-Cities Office

Leasing Activity Increases Over Last Quarters Vacancy Spike; Net Absorption Begins To Stabilize





MARKET OVERVIEW

Last quarters spike in negative net absorption presented firms who have been trying to expand their operations in the Tri-Cities office market an opportunity to do so. Kaiser Permanente, ATI Systems International and other firms are expanding their opertations and leasing activity increased to 585,600 SF for the quarter, more than double the level of leasing activity that occurred in the previous quarter.

Click Here to View Full Report



Friday, April 11, 2008

Sign of the Times: Truckers Say High Diesel Costs Threaten Industry

From NPR: Truckers are getting squeezed by the rising price of diesel. At around $4 a gallon, it's getting costly to fill up an 18-wheeler. Truck drivers have ratcheted up their public outcry, holding rallies across the country.

My Take: What is interesting about this article is the fact that more trucks are getting repossessed as owner operators, the mom and pop truckers, are defaulting on their truck loans as the price of fuel squeezes profit margins. Since there is hardly a market for used trucks here in the United States, since many truckers are experiencing the same effects, these trucks are finding their way to developing countries, Mexico, Vietnam, China.

Most everything in retail stores is brought there by truck drivers and owner operators are the paper boys who deliever these goods. Price pressure will find its way into the cost of these goods and all things will be more expensive; Americans are waking up to the reality that inflation has not been conquered (the last significant inflation occured in the early 1980's) and this is likely to be a rude and ugly awakening.

Truckers are one of the many important components of the supply chain, one of the last decent paying blue collar jobs and an iconic pillar of America (remember these?)


Thursday, April 10, 2008

First Quarter 2008 Inland Empire Office


Vacancy Rate Increases, Asking Lease Rate Declines

MARKET OVERVIEW

Currently, the Inland Empire office market is an attractive market for tenants. Rising vacancy rates coupled with decreasing asking rental rates are a natural consequence of the massive building boom that has finally reached its height. This slow and predictable increase in the office supply has been met with a rapid and drastic drop off in demand as mortgage and real estate companies begin to come to terms with the bursting housing bubble.

Developers are responding to the changing market conditions. Projects that were “under-construction” last quarter – land grading started but concrete slabs not poured yet - have been downgraded to proposed and larger projects that have been started are being phased in their development to prevent a glut of new space hitting the market.

Average asking lease rates for Class A space, the newly developed office space, has decreased $0.05 over the previous quarter whereas asking lease rates for older Class B space has remained unchanged.

The spread between Class A and Class B space is narrowing, indicating that landlords in newly developed properties are getting aggressive and are eager to place tenants in their properties. Landlords in older Class B and obsolete Class C space are losing tenants to these newer properties. Tenants in these older buildings are starting to realize that they can afford to move into newer and more functional space, especially given the amount of concessions landlords are willing to negotiate with strong credit tenants.

To View Full Report: Click Here




First Quarter 2008 San Gabriel Valley Office

Asking Lease Rates Increase Despite A Rise In The Vacancy Rate


MARKET OVERVIEW




Weighted average asking lease rates for the entire San Gabriel Valley office market increased by three percentage points over the previous quarter to end at $2.43 PSF per month, Full Service Gross (FSG). Last quarter asking lease rates actually declined; spurred on by rising vacancy rates in Class B space as landlords cut their rates to lease up this space.

This quarter, Class A vacancy rates are beginning to rise but landlords are viewing this as an opportunity to lease their prestigious space at higher rates. These landlords have remained firm on their high asking lease rates and are unlikely to drop them, preferring instead to offer generous tenant improvements and beneficial occupancy packages. As such, we can expect the average asking rental rate to increase into the next quarter as more Class A space becomes available, raising the average asking rate for the region.

The total vacancy rate for the San Gabriel Valley office market rose to 8.1% this quarter, up a full percentage point from a record low 7.1% the previous quarter. A higher portion of this vacant space is sublet space, which on average is 40 cents cheaper than direct vacant space. If sublet vacant space increases at a faster rate than the direct vacant space, this will put a significant damper on the asking lease rates for the region.






To View The Full Report: Click Here




Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Distribution redesign at Urban Outfitters

Hello,

I happened across this fascinating piece on how logistics can improve a companies bottom line and how one company (Urban Outfitters) re-claimed it's supply chain and triumphed.

This article is from my friends at Modern Materials Handling, which is a trade magazine for the logistics industry.

Here is the article reproduced in it's entirety:

Distribution redesign at Urban Outfitters

This new Reno distribution center relies on high-speed sortation and light-directed picking to speed up the supply chain.

By Bob Trebilcock, Editor at Large -- Modern Materials Handling, 4/1/2008

Just as Urban Outfitters is redesigning its processes to compress its overall supply chain, the new Reno, Nev., facility was designed to accelerate order fulfillment processes. Read related article on Urban Outfitters' distribution process.

Only 10% of the merchandise received at the facility will be stored in the reserve storage area. The rest will be crossdocked directly to the shipping area for delivery to another distribution center, or sorted to a packing area where the merchandise will be allocated to stores served by the DC.


The process begins when inventory arrives at the receiving area. The purchase order on the shipment packing list is entered into Urban's enterprise resource planning (ERP) system.

That alerts brand merchants who wrote the purchase orders as well as allocators who allocate the shipment among the stores in their brand that the product has arrived. This is their opportunity to reallocate inventory or allocate product that hasn't already been assigned to a store.

Once the inventory is entered into the ERP system, cartons are staged on pallets in a pallet staging area. There, order quantities and SKUs are validated and entered into the ERP system. That generates the allocation process.

Cases that can be sent directly to one of the stores or to another DC receive a shipping label and are inducted into the conveyor and sortation system, where they are then sorted to the shipping area.

Inventory that has yet to be allocated is transported by lift truck to the reserve storage area. Cases are put away on wire decking in a narrow-aisle area, pallets are stored in select rack, and bulkier items are stored on cantilever racks.

Product doesn't receive a bar code label for putaway. Instead, an associate scans a bar code on a putaway ticket and a bar code at the putaway location. That ties the product to a location in the inventory management system.

The rest of the inventory is ready for allocation. Product that requires ticketing or other value-added services is sent to a carton buffer and ticketing area. Once it's ready to be processed, cases are placed on the conveyor and delivered to the sliding shoe sortation system, which sorts it to a packing lane. Meanwhile, a carton monorail system delivers shipping cartons to the packing lanes. The monorail is also used to take waste away from the packing area.
To ensure accuracy, associates only pack items for one store brand in a lane. To keep presentation to the stores easy, packers don't mix women's clothing with men's clothing or apparel with housewares in the same carton.

In the packing area, Urban Outfitters uses a pack-to-light solution. Associates place cartons in rack locations. Each carton represents a specific store. Multiple cartons of the same SKU are sorted to a packing area at one time.

When they arrive, the packer scans a bar code label on a ticket in the lead case, which launches the packing operation for that SKU. Lights on the pick racks identify which cartons, or stores, will get that SKU and how many cases or items should be placed in a carton.

Once a shipping carton is full, it's pushed back onto the conveyor system. On its way to the shipping area it is weighed, taped and then sorted to the shipping area.

My Take: Only a small portion of the Distribution Center (DC) is devoted to reserve storage. This reserve storage is what most people think of when they think of a warehouse; stuff sitting on shelves waiting to be moved to someplace else.

Get over it! That was your grand-pa's warehouse. Modern distribution centers are much more efficient at tracking and especially at moving inventory. That is the difference of a Warehouse Vs. Distribution Center. The cliché is that a warehouse stores mistakes and is used to shield suppliers from the shocks in supply and demand. As such, you are going to need lots and lots of space to store your goods in case you produced too much (supply is greater than demand) or if you need a place to store your raw materials in case you want to pick up production (to handle the possibility of demand being greater than supply).

Lean supply chains (just in time delivery, predictive supply chains that respond instantly to changes in supply/demand) reduce the need for warehouse space. Lean supply chains require a distribution center, and Urban Outfitters has pulled this off successfully.

I wouldn't be surprised if the DC infrastructure costs (the inventory control system and the carton monorail) actually cost more than the actual building. These are significant infrastructure investments, which is why most firms opt to have a professional third party logistics (3PL) firm do the heavy lifting in their supply chain.










Monday, April 7, 2008

Better Than Free - How To Survive In The Age Of Information

I happened upon this gem by Kevin Kelly and I strongly believe in his views regarding information workers. This parallels my thinking on surviving in the age of information, and I have reproduced it in it's entirety. Ironic really, if you read this article all the way to the end you will know why.




Better Than Free


The internet is a copy machine. At its most foundational level, it copies every action, every character, every thought we make while we ride upon it. In order to send a message from one corner of the internet to another, the protocols of communication demand that the whole message be copied along the way several times. IT companies make a lot of money selling equipment that facilitates this ceaseless copying. Every bit of data ever produced on any computer is copied somewhere. The digital economy is thus run on a river of copies. Unlike the mass-produced reproductions of the machine age, these copies are not just cheap, they are free.

Our digital communication network has been engineered so that copies flow with as little friction as possible. Indeed, copies flow so freely we could think of the internet as a super-distribution system, where once a copy is introduced it will continue to flow through the network forever, much like electricity in a superconductive wire. We see evidence of this in real life. Once anything that can be copied is brought into contact with internet, it will be copied, and those copies never leave. Even a dog knows you can't erase something once it's flowed on the internet.




This super-distribution system has become the foundation of our economy and wealth. The instant reduplication of data, ideas, and media underpins all the major economic sectors in our economy, particularly those involved with exports -- that is, those industries where the US has a competitive advantage. Our wealth sits upon a very large device that copies promiscuously and constantly.

Yet the previous round of wealth in this economy was built on selling precious copies, so the free flow of free copies tends to undermine the established order. If reproductions of our best efforts are free, how can we keep going? To put it simply, how does one make money selling free copies?
I have an answer. The simplest way I can put it is thus:

When copies are super abundant, they become worthless. When copies are super abundant, stuff which can't be copied becomes scarce and valuable.
When copies are free, you need to sell things which can not be copied
.


Well, what can't be copied?

There are a number of qualities that can't be copied. Consider "trust." Trust cannot be copied. You can't purchase it. Trust must be earned, over time. It cannot be downloaded. Or faked. Or counterfeited (at least for long). If everything else is equal, you'll always prefer to deal with someone you can trust. So trust is an intangible that has increasing value in a copy saturated world.

There are a number of other qualities similar to trust that are difficult to copy, and thus become valuable in this network economy. I think the best way to examine them is not from the eye of the producer, manufacturer, or creator, but from the eye of the user. We can start with a simple user question: why would we ever pay for anything that we could get for free? When anyone buys a version of something they could get for free, what are they purchasing?
From my study of the network economy I see roughly eight categories of intangible value that we buy when we pay for something that could be free.

In a real sense, these are eight things that are better than free. Eight uncopyable values. I call them "generatives." A generative value is a quality or attribute that must be generated, grown, cultivated, nurtured. A generative thing can not be copied, cloned, faked, replicated, counterfeited, or reproduced. It is generated uniquely, in place, over time. In the digital arena, generative qualities add value to free copies, and therefore are something that can be sold.


Eight Generatives Better Than Free

Immediacy -- Sooner or later you can find a free copy of whatever you want, but getting a copy delivered to your inbox the moment it is released -- or even better, produced -- by its creators is a generative asset. Many people go to movie theaters to see films on the opening night, where they will pay a hefty price to see a film that later will be available for free, or almost free, via rental or download. Hardcover books command a premium for their immediacy, disguised as a harder cover. First in line often commands an extra price for the same good. As a sellable quality, immediacy has many levels, including access to beta versions. Fans are brought into the generative process itself. Beta versions are often de-valued because they are incomplete, but they also possess generative qualities that can be sold. Immediacy is a relative term, which is why it is generative. It has to fit with the product and the audience. A blog has a different sense of time than a movie, or a car. But immediacy can be found in any media.

Personalization -- A generic version of a concert recording may be free, but if you want a copy that has been tweaked to sound perfect in your particular living room -- as if it were preformed in your room -- you may be willing to pay a lot. The free copy of a book can be custom edited by the publishers to reflect your own previous reading background. A free movie you buy may be cut to reflect the rating you desire (no violence, dirty language okay). Aspirin is free, but aspirin tailored to your DNA is very expensive. As many have noted, personalization requires an ongoing conversation between the creator and consumer, artist and fan, producer and user. It is deeply generative because it is iterative and time consuming. You can't copy the personalization that a relationship represents. Marketers call that "stickiness" because it means both sides of the relationship are stuck (invested) in this generative asset, and will be reluctant to switch and start over.

Interpretation -- As the old joke goes: software, free. The manual, $10,000. But it's no joke. A couple of high profile companies, like Red Hat, Apache, and others make their living doing exactly that. They provide paid support for free software. The copy of code, being mere bits, is free -- and becomes valuable to you only through the support and guidance. I suspect a lot of genetic information will go this route. Right now getting your copy of your DNA is very expensive, but soon it won't be. In fact, soon pharmaceutical companies will PAY you to get your genes sequence. So the copy of your sequence will be free, but the interpretation of what it means, what you can do about it, and how to use it -- the manual for your genes so to speak -- will be expensive.

Authenticity -- You might be able to grab a key software application for free, but even if you don't need a manual, you might like to be sure it is bug free, reliable, and warranted. You'll pay for authenticity. There are nearly an infinite number of variations of the Grateful Dead jams around; buying an authentic version from the band itself will ensure you get the one you wanted. Or that it was indeed actually performed by the Dead. Artists have dealt with this problem for a long time. Graphic reproductions such as photographs and lithographs often come with the artist's stamp of authenticity -- a signature -- to raise the price of the copy. Digital watermarks and other signature technology will not work as copy-protection schemes (copies are super-conducting liquids, remember?) but they can serve up the generative quality of authenticity for those who care.

Accessibility -- Ownership often sucks. You have to keep your things tidy, up-to-date, and in the case of digital material, backed up. And in this mobile world, you have to carry it along with you. Many people, me included, will be happy to have others tend our "possessions" by subscribing to them. We'll pay Acme Digital Warehouse to serve us any musical tune in the world, when and where we want it, as well as any movie, photo (ours or other photographers). Ditto for books and blogs. Acme backs everything up, pays the creators, and delivers us our desires. We can sip it from our phones, PDAs, laptops, big screens from where-ever. The fact that most of this material will be available free, if we want to tend it, back it up, keep adding to it, and organize it, will be less and less appealing as time goes on.

Embodiment -- At its core the digital copy is without a body. You can take a free copy of a work and throw it on a screen. But perhaps you'd like to see it in hi-res on a huge screen? Maybe in 3D? PDFs are fine, but sometimes it is delicious to have the same words printed on bright white cottony paper, bound in leather. Feels so good. What about dwelling in your favorite (free) game with 35 others in the same room? There is no end to greater embodiment. Sure, the hi-res of today -- which may draw ticket holders to a big theater -- may migrate to your home theater tomorrow, but there will always be new insanely great display technology that consumers won't have. Laser projection, holographic display, the holodeck itself! And nothing gets embodied as much as music in a live performance, with real bodies. The music is free; the bodily performance expensive. This formula is quickly becoming a common one for not only musicians, but even authors. The book is free; the bodily talk is expensive.

Patronage -- It is my belief that audiences WANT to pay creators. Fans like to reward artists, musicians, authors and the like with the tokens of their appreciation, because it allows them to connect. But they will only pay if it is very easy to do, a reasonable amount, and they feel certain the money will directly benefit the creators. Radiohead's recent high-profile experiment in letting fans pay them whatever they wished for a free copy is an excellent illustration of the power of patronage. The elusive, intangible connection that flows between appreciative fans and the artist is worth something. In Radiohead's case it was about $5 per download. There are many other examples of the audience paying simply because it feels good.

Findability -- Where as the previous generative qualities reside within creative digital works, findability is an asset that occurs at a higher level in the aggregate of many works. A zero price does not help direct attention to a work, and in fact may sometimes hinder it. But no matter what its price, a work has no value unless it is seen; unfound masterpieces are worthless. When there are millions of books, millions of songs, millions of films, millions of applications, millions of everything requesting our attention -- and most of it free -- being found is valuable.
The giant aggregators such as Amazon and Netflix make their living in part by helping the audience find works they love. They bring out the good news of the "long tail" phenomenon, which we all know, connects niche audiences with niche productions. But sadly, the long tail is only good news for the giant aggregators, and larger mid-level aggregators such as publishers, studios, and labels. The "long tail" is only lukewarm news to creators themselves. But since findability can really only happen at the systems level, creators need aggregators. This is why publishers, studios, and labels (PSL)will never disappear. They are not needed for distribution of the copies (the internet machine does that). Rather the PSL are needed for the distribution of the users' attention back to the works. From an ocean of possibilities the PSL find, nurture and refine the work of creators that they believe fans will connect with. Other intermediates such as critics and reviewers also channel attention. Fans rely on this multi-level apparatus of findability to discover the works of worth out of the zillions produced. There is money to be made (indirectly for the creatives) by finding talent. For many years the paper publication TV Guide made more money than all of the 3 major TV networks it "guided" combined. The magazine guided and pointed viewers to the good stuff on the tube that week. Stuff, it is worth noting, that was free to the viewers. There is little doubt that besides the mega-aggregators, in the world of the free many PDLs will make money selling findability -- in addition to the other generative qualities.

These eight qualities require a new skill set. Success in the free-copy world is not derived from the skills of distribution since the Great Copy Machine in the Sky takes care of that. Nor are legal skills surrounding Intellectual Property and Copyright very useful anymore. Nor are the skills of hoarding and scarcity. Rather, these new eight generatives demand an understanding of how abundance breeds a sharing mindset, how generosity is a business model, how vital it has become to cultivate and nurture qualities that can't be replicated with a click of the mouse.
In short, the money in this networked economy does not follow the path of the copies. Rather it follows the path of attention, and attention has its own circuits.

Careful readers will note one conspicuous absence so far. I have said nothing about advertising. Ads are widely regarded as the solution, almost the ONLY solution, to the paradox of the free. Most of the suggested solutions I've seen for overcoming the free involve some measure of advertising. I think ads are only one of the paths that attention takes, and in the long-run, they will only be part of the new ways money is made selling the free.

But that's another story.

Beneath the frothy layer of advertising, these eight generatives will supply the value to ubiquitous free copies, and make them worth advertising for. These generatives apply to all digital copies, but also to any kind of copy where the marginal cost of that copy approaches zero. (See my essay on Technology Wants to Be Free.) Even material industries are finding that the costs of duplication near zero, so they too will behave like digital copies. Maps just crossed that threshold. Genetics is about to. Gadgets and small appliances (like cell phones) are sliding that way. Pharmaceuticals are already there, but they don't want anyone to know. It costs nothing to make a pill. We pay for Authenticity and Immediacy in drugs. Someday we'll pay for Personalization.

Maintaining generatives is a lot harder than duplicating copies in a factory. There is still a lot to learn. A lot to figure out. Write to me if you do.


My Take: This is a refreshing piece put very eloquently. It relates to what I do, which is to keep track of buildings and market conditions and to publish these results in a report. The report is free, my advice and observations only cost the time it takes to find them and to read them.

These reports are a stepping stone, I am working on creating something that is better than free; something that fills the desparate need people have for data interpretation and analysis. I believe that this blog that you are reading is a significant first step.

Friday, April 4, 2008

Whatever you are thinking, think the opposite ...

Paul Arden, author of "Its not how good you are, it is how good you want to be" died this week.

This is one of my favorite books because of its truisms and the simple direct images that accompany the text. Paul Arden's outlook on life and work in general is to be admired.

Momus summed it up better than I ever could so why try to improve upon perfection?

The good ad man

I tend to think that ad men can't be gurus, and that a creative director most famous for a cigarette campaign (the Silk Cut "silk cunt" purple silk slash) couldn't possibly have done the world much good. But British ad guru Paul Arden, who died this week aged 67, wrote a self-help book -- a thought experiment of sorts -- called Whatever You Think, Think The Opposite, and I'm going to follow his advice today. Whatever I think about advertising, I'm going to try thinking the opposite.
Paul Arden worked for Saatchi and Saatchi in the 80s, masterminding ads for British Airways, Silk Cut, Anchor Butter, InterCity and Fuji. Later he started his own agency, Arden Sutherland-Dodd, and did campaigns for BT, BMW, Ford, Nestle and Levis. He's the man who advertised The Independent newspaper with the slogan "It is. Are you?" (The paper later gave him a column, which is where his bestselling motivational books began.) He came up with "The car in front is a Toyota". This is his ad for the BMW C1: Do you see what he did there?




His first book, It's Not How Good You Are, It's How Good You Want To Be, contained ideas like these:
The problem with making sensible decisions is that so is everyone else.
Why do we strive for excellence when mediocrity is required?
Don't try to please the client.
Have you noticed how the cleverest people at school are not those who make it in life?
If you can't solve a problem it's because you're playing by the rules.
You don't have to be creative to be creative.
You don't have to be able to write to be able to write.
Don't seek praise, seek criticism.
Sometimes it's good to be fired.
There is no right point of view.
It's right to be wrong.
Those last two thoughts contradict each other, but maybe there's nothing wrong with self-contradiction if nothing is wrong? Maybe it's better to be interesting than right? Maybe wrong is the new right? Let's think those thoughts today, or think their opposites. Maybe there isn't much difference between thoughts like that and their opposites.Arden's second book details cases of people breaking through to new success by thinking the opposite of what they previously thought. He starts it with Dick Fosbury, a highjumper who came up with the Fosbury Flop. Previously Fosbury, like everyone else, had vaulted forwards, crossing the bar parallel to it. Then one day he did the opposite; he flopped over it backwards, and broke the world record. Penguin did the same thing, says Arden, when they invented the paperback:"Good writers, good design and good value at sixpence. Sounds obvious. Not in 1934. Booksellers told Penguin, 'If we can't make a profit on 7s 6d, how can we make one on sixpence?' Writers thought they would lose their royalties. Publishers would not agree to sell their titles for paperback printing. Only Woolworths, who sold nothing over sixpence, was cooperative. As a publishing venture it was considered a bad idea. The founder of Penguin, Allen Lane, thought the opposite. The rest is history!"After leaving Saatchi, Arden started a film company, taught at the School of Communication Arts, and founded his own agency. His film company made this rather interesting (or interestingly boring) film, The Man Who Couldn't Open Doors. To me, it's a take on Colin Wilson's The Outsider. It looks like an ad, but it's slowed way down, so you just get the metaphysical remoteness of advertising, its detachment from life. Instead of machismo, a certain kind of pathos is communicated. We're in the world of 1980s advertising, but also the world of Magritte and Camus."All the man who couldn't open doors had in his flat was a poster of Mao Tse Tung. The previous tenant had left it." Somehow, I can recognize that that thought comes from the same man who made the Silk Cut ad. It has the same Zen-like emptiness. Arden was apparently such a perfectionist that people joked he wouldn't play football unless the grass was the right shade of green. But he was also religious. His last book was called God Explained in a Taxi Ride. Here's his take on 9/11:"If instead of showing strength by spending billions on weapons of war, the West was to build a mosque on Ground Zero, it would be a remarkable symbol of our understanding of the Islamic point of view. It would be a major step towards world peace."Here are some of Paul Arden's other pieces of advice:If people constantly reject your ideas or what you have to offer, resign. You can't keep fighting and losing, that makes you a problem. If you are good and right for the job, your resignation will not be accepted. You'll be re-signed, on your terms. If they accept your resignation, you were in the wrong job, and it is better for you to move on. It takes courage, but it is the right move.
Your vision of where or who you want to be is the greatest asset you have. Without having a goal it's difficult to score.
To creative types: don't worry about the medium you work in, focus on the money you'll make. It's honest.
Paul Arden gave lectures which, according to Creativity Online, were boring at the time but interesting for years afterwards when you thought back. "In one industry talk, he stood silently next to a woman playing the cello. Another time he gave a speech with a naked man on stage, demonstrating that a person is a blank canvas. And he once hired an actor to babble onstage while Mr. Arden displayed meaningless charts. His point was that although no one in the audience knew what was going on, they would never forget it."
In an interview with The Independent shortly before he died, Arden struggled with the question of advertising's moral culpability:"If anyone is to be accused, it's the manufacturer," says Arden, who also believes that the state should take responsibility for irresponsible ads. "Cigarette advertising should have been banned by government but they wouldn't because it brought in too much money. It's the government that's corrupt," he says. "We all in our heart know that casinos are wrong. They are a way of robbing poor people of their money. Why does the government allow them? Because they make a lot of money. It's not the people advertising the casinos or the lottery but the governments that allow them that are creating the cancer."Although nobody denies that he was a difficult man and a perfectionist, his colleagues remember Arden fondly. A good ad man might be something of a contradiction in terms, but today, in tribute to Arden, let's think the opposite of what we think.

My Take: Read Arden's book, "It is not how good you are it is how good you want to be". If you can follow these steps you will have a rewarding career.
Arden was very good at working with imagery, which is why he excelled in sales; taking something untangible and complex and explaining it simply and vividly. To be the best in your field, the best in the world, takes guts, experience and an unwillingness to compromise your vision. In the ad world and in the commercial real estate research world, these rules are the same.

Thursday, April 3, 2008

What I would be watching if I had cable

This National Geographic series is about the Human Footprint, the sum of all consumption an average person has in their lifetime. The average American will consume: 87,520 slices of bread, 26,112 cups of milk, 19,826 eggs, 12,888 oranges, 12,129 hamburger buns, 3,796 diapers, 31,350 gallons of gas.

Each one of these items - oranges, milk, diapers - took raw materials to make such as water, oil, labor etc. The purpose of the series is to not only document how many hamburgers a person consumes, but where the cattle was raised and what steps and people are involved in bringing the meat to market.

A la the I Pencil piece I talked about earlier, there is an army of people producing goods and services who live behind the scenes. In different countries, speaking different languages, people who might even hate each other but who, unknowingly, contribute to our well being.

This is not the jist of the show. The shows purpose is to show how wasteful we are. Wasteful on a scale unimaginable by our ancestors and above any rational sense of proportion. I cannot deny this, but this waste isn't entirely bad and has enabled us to live better, consuming more goods from more remote parts of the world than our parents or grand-parents ever could. My interest is in the supply chain that brought these goods to market and enabled this incredible "waste" in the first place.

There is a very good chance than many of these oranges, milk, diapers, tires, hamburger buns and gasoline was stored in Inland Empire warehouses, transported along Southern California highways and rail systems to the rest of the country.


Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Sign of the Times - Asian exports shifting to new markets


From Financial Times:

Asian exports shifting to new markets
By Raphael Minder in Hong Kong

Published: April 1 2008 05:33 Last updated: April 1 2008 17:13

East Asian nations are successfully shifting exports away from the US to other developing countries, Europe and oil-rich markets in the Middle East, the World Bank said on Tuesday.

Whether Asia’s many export-driven economies would be able to reduce their reliance on the US, traditionally their biggest market, has driven much of the recent debate over the global impact of a US slowdown

But Vikram Nehru, the World Bank’s chief economist for east Asia and the Pacific, which excludes Japan and Australia, said on Tuesday the shift was taking place faster than expected. “I didn’t expect such a rapid shift towards non-US markets as we are seeing,” he told the Financial Times. “That is a sign of very adept marketing, as exchange rates and incentives change.”
Mr Nehru said east Asian exporters had been nimbly using their currency positioning “somewhere in the middle” between a falling dollar and a rising euro, with the eurozone now a more attractive target for their shipments.

While annual export growth from emerging east Asian nations initially slowed from 22 per cent in January of last year to 15-16 per cent in the third quarter, it has since rebounded to 18-19 per cent.

The World Bank also said more sophisticated domestic production was allowing China to source more of its input needs internally.

“If this trend continues and if other east Asian economies are able to exploit these new opportunities in China’s domestic market then, over time, China is also likely to become an increasingly independent growth pole for the rest of east Asia,’’ the bank said.
South Korea on Tuesday reported that exports in March rose at their fastest annual pace in five months. The stronger than expected trade figures prompted Goldman Sachs to raise its exports growth forecast for South Korea this year to 10 per cent from 9.8 per cent, “on the back of a weaker Korean won and ongoing export diversification”.

Still, the World Bank lowered its 2008 regional growth forecast to 7.3 per cent, compared with a previous estimate of 8.2 per cent, amid a global economic slowdown. East Asian growth is expected to be 7.4 per cent in 2009.

Strong fiscal positions and foreign exchange reserves gave most east Asian countries the means to stimulate their economies by offering tax incentives and other measures if a global slowdown became more pronounced, the bank said.

However, it warned that rising inflation posed a more immediate threat to east Asian countries than a slowdown or any further credit squeeze linked to the collapsed US subprime market. “In virtually every east Asian country, inflation is climbing to uncomfortable levels while monetary and credit growth is difficult to contain owing to substantial capital inflows.’’

South Korea and Indonesia on Tuesday both reported higher than expected inflation data.
Indonesia’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 8.2 per cent, its highest level since September 2006, while South Korean consumer prices in March rose 3.9 per cent to match a three-year high set in January. Asian countries already struggling with double-digit inflation include Cambodia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka.

Vikram Nehru, the World Bank’s chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific, said in an interview: ”I didn’t expect such a rapid shift towards non-US markets as we are seeing. That is a sign of very adept marketing, as exchange rates and incentives change.”
Mr Nehru said East Asian exporters had adjusted well to their currency positioning ”somewhere in the middle” between a falling dollar and a rising euro, which is making European markets more attractive.

While annual export growth from emerging East Asian nations slowed from 22 per cent in January of last year to between 15 and 16 per cent in the third quarter, it has since rebounded to between 18 and 19 per cent.

The World Bank also highlighted the extent to which more sophisticated domestic production is allowing China to source more of its input needs internally. ”If this trend continues and if other East Asian economies are able to exploit these new opportunities in China’s domestic market then, over time, China is also likely to become an increasingly independent growth pole for the rest of East Asia,’’ according to the World Bank’s latest regional report. ”The character of intra-East Asian trade flows is likely to undergo structural change over time.”

Confirming the resilience of exports from the region, South Korea on Tuesday reported that exports in March rose at their fastest annual pace in five months. The stronger-than-expected trade figures prompted Goldman Sachs to raise its export growth forecast for South Korea this year to 10 per cent from 9.8 per cent, ”on the back of a weaker Korean won and ongoing export diversification.”

Still, the World Bank on Tuesday lowered its 2008 growth forecast for the region, which excludes Japan and the Indian subcontinent, to 7.3 per cent, down from the 8.2 per cent level predicted last November. It said east Asian growth should reach 7.4 per cent in 2009.
The Korean trade data indicated that exports to the US remained surprisingly robust, a key consideration for the country’s technology companies. In its report, the World Bank said that world demand is ”likely to be reflected in weaker East Asian export growth in the coming months.”

”However there is little in the data so far to suggest a steep high-tech-led downturn of the 2001 type,” it said.

A strong fiscal position and high foreign exchange reserves could also give most East Asian countries the means to stimulate their economies with one-shot measures such as tax relief if the economic slowdown becomes more pronounced, the bank said.

The World Bank warned that inflation was a more immediate threat to East Asian countries than the global slowdown or a further credit squeeze linked to the collapse of the US subprime market. ``In virtually every East Asian country, inflation is climbing to uncomfortable levels while monetary and credit growth is difficult to contain owing to substantial capital inflows.’’

My Take: This is bad news for the Inland Empire since a good portion of our warehouse strength came from Asian imports. If China can easily substitute out of the United States and into the Euro-zone, then we would be hit a lot harder than if the option didn't exist; the Chinese would trade with the United States even if it was slightly unprofitable for them, since they had no one else to trade with. But they do have others to trade with and a strong Euro buys a lot more goods than a falling dollar. So it seems we should not pity the Chinese manufacturer just yet.