Monday, February 11, 2008

SLOOS, Why do you have to be so mean?


It took me awhile to realize this, but money really does make the world go round. Money has a very prominent role in what we economists assume people are motivated by and respond to.
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For example, most Marchallian charts (those with supply AND demand) have price (money) right there on the vertical axis with units on the horizontal axis.
.Indeed, capitalism would be very difficult without money (capital) which is why so much talk recently has been focused on the so called "credit crunch"
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I personally wasn't incredibly worried until I happened across the latest issue of SLOOS (Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey).
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Basically, the Fed sends a survey to the heads of the largest lending institutions in the country and asks them what their risk outlook is like for the upcoming year and how much money these institutions plan on lending to the economy at large.
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80% of respondents (the people who loan out money) say they plan on tightening their standards for commercial real estate loans in a situation that eerily parallels the last notable real estate credit crunch, the 1980's S&L crisis.
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While there is a potentially large difference between what senior loan officer's say and what senior loan officer's do, the report covers what we all have known for some time. A less favorable economic outlook leads to tightening terms on commercial real estate loans. The sky isn't falling, but the world may stop turning.
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