Philadelphia Fed Forecast

It is actually an aggregate forecast from a bunch of sources, but the not everyone can be wrong, right?

Forecasters Project Another Round of Cuts to the Outlook for Short-Term Growth

Growth in U.S. real output over the next few quarters looks slower now than it did just three months ago, according to 47 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

This is the sixth survey, beginning with the survey of the second quarter of 2007, in which the outlook for growth appears weaker. In the current quarter, real GDP is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.2 percent, down from the previous estimate of 1.7 percent.

The largest downward revision (1.1 percentage points at an annual rate) is for the fourth quarter, when real GDP is projected to grow at an annual rate of 0.7 percent, down from the previous projection of 1.8 percent.

The forecasters also reduced their estimates by 0.7 percentage point for growth in the first quarter of 2009 and by 0.4 percentage point for growth in the second quarter of 2009.

Year over year, growth is expected to average 1.7 percent in 2008 and 1.5 percent in 2009.

Previously, the forecasters expected growth of 1.5 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009.

Increased Chance of a Downturn

The risk for a quarter of negative growth in real GDP has risen. The forecasters see a 47 percent chance of negative growth in the fourth quarter of 2008, up from 30 percent in the last survey.