Friday, May 1, 2009

April 2009 Manufacturing ISM Index

From the Institute of Supply Management:


Manufacturing contracted in April as the PMI registered 40.1 percent, which is 3.8 percentage points higher than the 36.3 percent reported in March. This is the 15th consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 41.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates contraction in both the overall economy and the manufacturing sector. Ore stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through April (37 percent) corresponds to a 1.3 percent decrease in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for April (40.1 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 0.3 percent decrease in real GDP annually."

Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster for the seventh consecutive month in April as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 44.9 percent, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the 43.6 percent registered in March. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The two industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in April are: Furniture & Related Products; and Transportation Equipment. The industries reporting faster deliveries in April are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; and Chemical Products.

Customers' Inventories

The ISM Customers' Inventories Index registered 49.5 percent in April, 4.5 percentage points lower than the 54 percent reported in March. The index indicates that respondents believe their customers' inventories are too low at this time. This is the first time the Customers' Inventories Index has been below 50 percent since July 2008.

Five industries reported higher customers' inventories during April: Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The industries that reported lower customers' inventories during April are: Primary Metals; Wood Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Furniture & Related Products.

Looks like there is a trend. The bolded text are industries that look like they are growing or show some signs of life.

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